So last night’s predictions were not posted in time, apologies for this. However, seeing your girlfriend for one night only before she goes away for 3 weeks kind of sorts out your priorities for you. Here were last night’s predictions and results, you’ll have to take my word for their validity:
| 4th July | = | Prediction | Score | Correct Prediction? | |||
| San Francisco | @ | Washington | = | San Francisco – 51% | SF 3 WSH 9 | No (13/38) | |
| Tampa Bay | @ | NY Yankees | = | NY Yankees – 54% | TB 2 NYY 3 | Yes (14/39) | |
| Toronto | @ | Detroit | = | Detroit – 54% | TOR 3 DET 8 | Yes (15/40) | |
| Houston | @ | Boston | = | Boston – 52% | HOU 1 BOS 6 | Yes (16/41) | |
| Baltimore | @ | White Sox | = | White Sox – 51% | BAL 2 CWS 3 | Yes (17/42) | |
| San Diego | @ | St Louis | = | St Louis – 56% | SD 1 STL 2 | Yes (18/43) | |
| Seattle | @ | Oakland | = | Oakland – 51% | SEA 0 OAK 2 | Yes (19/44) | |
| NY Mets | @ | LA Dodgers | = | LA Dodgers – 55% | NYM 3 LAD 4 | Yes (20/45) | |
| LA Angels | @ | Texas | = | LA Angels – 51% | LAA 13 TEX 0 | Yes (21/46) |
As you can see, a much improved night, with 8 out of 9 correct predictions, perhaps I can explain why:
I have decided to slightly adapt the model after not being satisfied with its start; inspired by reading Big Data Baseball by Travis Sawchik (highly recommended) I have introduced the xFIP stat to add to my measure of starting pitchers. Standing for Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) , the stat removes the value (or lack of value) of a pitcher’s defense, allowing a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s true ability. This may or may not have had anything to do with last night’s results, but it’s a good start nonetheless.
July 5th predictions:
| 5th July | @ | = | Prediction | Betfair odds | ||
| Houston | @ | Boston | = | Houston – 52% | Boston – 1.85 (52%) | |
| Philadelphia | @ | Atlanta | = | Atlanta – 54% | Atlanta – 1.85 (52%) | |
| Cleveland | @ | Pittsburgh | = | Pittsburgh – 53% | Pittsburgh – 1.7 (56%) | |
| Baltimore | @ | White Sox | = | Baltimore – 51% | Baltimore – 1.91 (51%) | |
| San Diego | @ | St Louis | = | St Louis – 55% | St Louis – 1.53 (62%) | |
| Miami | @ | Cubs | = | Cubs – 53% | Cubs – 1.68 (58%) | |
| Colorado | @ | Arizona | = | Arizona – 53% | Arizona – 1.66 (58%) | |
| LA Angels | @ | Texas | = | LA Angels – 51% | LA Angels – 1.8 (53%) | |
| San Francisco | @ | Washington | = | Washington – 54% | Washington – 1.61 (61%) |
Just two top picks tonight: A Houston win in Boston (that was painful to type) as well as the Atlanta Braves at home to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Top Picks:
- Houston @ Boston = Houston – 52%
- Philadelphia @ Atlanta = Atlanta – 54%
Starting in Boston, the Astros are expected to take a series victory away behind the strong pitching of the recently emerged Lance McCullers. The Astros enjoy a significant pitching advantage, both from their starter and the bullpen. McCullers is superior to Eduardo Rodriguez (another young, emerging starter) in ERA, batting average against, WHIP and most importantly xFIP. Furthermore the Houston bullpen can be relied upon to provide security in the later innings, holding a superb 2.19 ERA. McCullers arsenal includes a strong fastball at 2.5 runs above average, but an even more impressive curveball with a mammoth 9 runs above average. The Astros can also rely upon an impressive offense, averaging 4.52 runs per game, ranking 4th in the Major leagues, dominating the league average Red Sox who score at 4.2 runs per game. The model goes for the Astros tonight, whereas Betfair has this as a Red Sox victory. We’ll place a 1 unit stake on an Astros win.
Now to Atlanta, where Shelby Miller is predicted to out-duel fellow ace Cole Hamels. Whilst both pitchers have enjoyed strong seasons to date, Miller shades this matchup. The quality of his fastball and cutter are key to this, ranking at 9.0 and 12.0 runs above average respectively. In comparison, Hamels’ below average fastball at -2.1 runs above average but strong changeup at 7.1 runs above average suggests that this should be a tight matchup, but one in which Miller and the Braves should prevail. However, it is offensively where this game is blown wide open in favour of the Braves, the Phillies rank 30th, or league worst, in runs per game at 3.39, this stat deteriorates further when away from home scoring at just 3.15 runs every outing. The Braves on the other hand are by no means a strong offensive team, but hold a significant advantage over the Phillies nonetheless, scoring at 3.98 runs on average, elevated to 4.1 at home. Betfair concurs on a Braves victory, but only at a 52% probability. When compared to the model’s 54% rating we can find value here, and hence will stake one unit.
The virtual bank balance is not looking healthy, measuring at 96.61 after Friday night’s losses, therefore 2 victories tonight would be more than welcome. Normal service is now resumed on here, with nightly predictions continuing for the foreseeable future. Thanks for reading.
Overall Model Success = 46%
Virtual Bank Balance = 96.61
itsjustrounders 