The worst time of year

Students really hate this part of the year. Exam time. For that reason ItsJustRounders will have a scaling down of operations until the 31st May – the date of my final examination and granting of eternal freedom.

The last set of results came on the 19th May as the model went 3-2 on the evening but due to stake weightings lost a small balance of -0.29 units. Nothing to worry about.

Here are those results in full:

19.05 results

May 21st predictions: 

21.05 predictions

Value Pick of the day: 

Arizona @ St Louis = Arizona – 54% at odds of 2.15

Just the one pick tonight as the Diamondbacks are predicted to grind out a tough win in St Louis. With 4 picks in play there is strong potential however to get the virtual bank balance back over 110. As stated earlier a shorter post tonight, unfortunately I kind of need a degree. Thanks for reading.

Overall Accuracy: 56%

Virtual Bank Balance: 108.91

A step back… but not to square one

Well like we said, last night was always going to depend on the Arizona-Yankees matchup. Unfortunately, despite a much improved pitching performance from Shelby Miller, the Arizona offense failed to muster much and ultimately fell 4-2. Despite this result, the model went 3-3 on the night overall that limited the damage to a loss of -6.88 units.

Here are those results in full:

18.05 results

May 19th predictions: 

19.05 predictions

Value pick of the day: 

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh = Pittsburgh – 66% at odds of 1.62 on BET365

Just 5 small picks tonight, with a maximum individual stake on 2 units on any game tonight. Whilst tonight isn’t going to dramatically transform the model’s fortunes, wins like these are vital for momentum, to compliment and consolidate winnings when the model finds bigger edges. Time to get the good times rolling again then. Thanks for reading.

Overall Accuracy: 56%

Virtual bank balance: 109.20

Told you so

See? there was no reason to be concerned. A massive bounce-back night for the model with 6 out of 7 correct predictions that added just the 11.21 to the virtual bank balance that is now replenished at a balance of 116.08. Particularly impressive were correct predictions of wins for Houston in Chicago as well as a close win for Arizona at home to the Yankees. This matchup will once again feature heavily tonight. But first…

Here are those brilliant results in full:

17.05 results

May 18th predictions: 

18.05 predictions

N.B Boston-Kansas City is game 1

Value pick of the day: 

How’s an 18% for ya? big enough? Just the 10 units staked on the Diamondbacks to once again beat the Yankees at home as the model once again finds value in a Shelby Miller start.

Miller’s start last time out against the Giants was much improved, with just one error costing him 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Work is still there to be done with Miller, with an unacceptable 17.8% HR/FB and 5.94 xFIP. To get back to previous levels Miller needs his fastball velocity to return, at a career low 92.4 MPH on average meaning Miller is missing far fewer bats, producing an contact rate that has jumped up 4% to 85.5% and a much slower swinging strike percentage of 6.4%. If Miller’s fastball is not going to return to previous levels an alternative is boosting that GB% with off-speed options, as evidenced by Miller’s increased reliance on his changeup this year, throwing it 7.9% of the time as opposed to just 2.2% in 2015. Once Miller gets his change sorted, you would expect that xFIP number to come down. Miller is simply too good a starter to remain at these numbers for the rest of the year.

On the flip side, the Arizona offense has a sizable advantage over the Yankees. Arizona scores at 4.65 runs per game at home in 2016, compared to the Yankees who have struggled to generate offense on the road with a Major-League worst 2.69 runs per game. Eovaldi has made a good start to 2016 for the Yankees but will still give up opportunities with a 17.9% HR/FB. When all the factors in this matchup are summed, it is clear that the bookies odds tonight both underestimate Miller’s ability and the offensive advantage for the Diamondbacks. Great value on offer here.

Time to boost those profit levels once again. Much of tonight will hinge on the outcome of the Diamondbacks-Yankees matchup, but with 5 other picks plenty of other games can add to that virtual bank balance. Thanks for reading.

Overall accuracy: 56%

Virtual bank balance: 116.08

Keep the faith

Well there’s no hiding it, a rough night for the model by all accounts. The best result of the evening was a washout in Kansas City thereby voiding the Royals-Red Sox pick. The other 3 picks of the evening produced an overall loss of 9 units that puts the virtual bank balance back down at 104.87.

Let’s move on as quickly as possible. However, first here are those results in full:

16.05 results

May 17th predictions: 

17.05 predictions.PNG

Value pick of the day: 

Houston @ White Sox = Houston – 61% at odds of 1.90 on BET365

The only projected road victory of the day among the value picks also offers the biggest edge of 11% for the model. Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros in this one, matched up against Carlos Rodon who gets the start for the White Sox. Both performances of these teams thus far has been rather surprising, before the start of the season these teams were projected to be in the opposite position to where they are now.

The Astros struggles have not been helped by a poor, by his standards, opening to the 2016 season for Dallas Keuchel. Yet Keuchel’s xFIP of 3.78 suggests he will improve as the year progresses. Keuchel could do with improving that GB%, currently uncharacteristically below 60%.

Despite Keuchel’s poor stats, the model projects him to edge the matchup with Carlos Rodon on the basis of ability. Rodon’s worryingly high 17.9% HR/FB suggests his current xFIP of 3.76 will not last. The offenses match up extremely similarly, but with Houston scoring better on many of the chosen indicators. The model projects a comfortable win for the Astros, supported by a 5 unit stake based on the bookies odds.

7 more picks gives the model the chance to bounce back well in just one night. Keep the faith, we’ve seen what this model is capable of. Thanks for reading.

Overall Accuracy: 52%

Virtual bank balance: 104.87

 

Rub of the green

Whilst the warm streak of last week appears to have been snapped, the model is still producing encouraging results. A dramatic win for Oakland in Tampa Bay yesterday afternoon ensured an average day for the model with an overall return of -0.3 units as the remaining picks yielded somewhat surprising wins for the Angels and Twins in particular as the model just failed to get the rub of the green required to make a profit on the day.

Here are those results in full:

15.05 results

May 16th predictions: 

16.05 predictions

Value pick of the Day: 

Tampa Bay @ Toronto = Toronto – 66% at odds of 1.83 on Bet365

Another great pick here for its value. The model is looking to jump on another over-estimation of Drew Smyly’s strong start to the year. The combination of the Blue Jays offense gradually warming up and J.A Happ providing reliable starting pitching ought to see a comfortable Toronto victory in this one as the model suggests. With a 7.5 unit stake plenty of risk is on the table but with sufficient reward to make this pick justifiable. A short post this evening due to revision commitments but important to get the picks out there before game time. Thanks for reading.

Overall accuracy: 55%

Virtual bank balance: 113.87

RISP

Apologies for the first missed day of predictions of the 2016 season. I have a good excuse though… I was playing baseball. You can read all about it here: https://extrainningsbaseball.wordpress.com/2016/05/15/sheffield/

Let’s being with a recap of the 13th May results. An inability to bring home runners lead to the Arizona Diamondbacks falling 3-1 at home to the Giants in the largest stake of the day. Arizona went just 1-4 with runners in scoring position and left a total of 5 runners on base as Jeff Samardzija claimed the win for San Francisco with a strong outing.

Here are those results in full:

13.05 results

Wins for Oakland in Tampa and for Kansas City at home to the tanking Atlanta Braves ensured that overall accuracy remained at the target level of 60%. However, with Arizona’s loss the virtual bank balance has fallen back down to 114.17, nothing that can’t be improved upon with a solid return this evening.

May 15th predictions: 

15.05 predictions

Value pick of the day: 

Oakland @ Tampa Bay:

Once again the model finds value in Sonny Gray’s recent slump as the A’s are predicted to get the win over Matt Moore and the Tampa Bay Rays in this one. This matchup is one of struggling offenses, with Tampa Bay and Oakland both in the bottom 6th of MLB offenses, mustering just 3.59 and 3.73 runs per game respectively. Therefore, this game will most likely be won by pitching, or simply whichever starter lasts longer. Gray struggled last time out against the Red Sox, then again the way they’re hitting lately who wouldn’t?

Matt Moore has been unimpressive against far weaker opposition, giving up 2 runs but more importantly 4 walks and 7 hits in just 4 and 2/3 innings against the Mariners last Monday. Moore’s xFIP has improved this year but at the expense of a rising 14.6% HR/FB and a win probability added of -0.86 overall. A return of Sonny Gray to anything like his potential should results in an A’s victory this afternoon.

Normal service is resumed therefore with 5 more picks to get you’re teeth into. A great sunday afternoon of baseball coming up with a particularly mouthwatering Pirates-Cubs matchup on the cards. Thanks for reading.

Overall Accuracy: 60%

Virtual bank balance: 114.17

Back to it

After a strange night off last night with the model finding no picks that offered significant value, we’re right back at it tonight with 4 more selections. Lets get right to it.

May 13th predictions: 

13.05 predictions

Value picks of the day: 

  1. San Francisco @ Arizona = Arizona – 55% at odds of 2.35 on BET365

Big big big BIG edge here, with a 14% difference between the bookies and my model resulting in a 7.5 unit stake. That’s what we like to see.

Shelby Miller gets the start for the Diamondbacks after a much improved performance last time out against the Braves. Ok I know it was the Braves but still. Miller is still rated highly by the pitching evaluator thanks to his strong 2015 in Atlanta that demonstrated his true talent. Miller needs to get his GB% and HR/FB ratio back towards those 2015 levels if he is to continue being successful. Hopefully his start tonight will continue a recent upturn in form.

Arizona’s offense has the potential to carry with them, scoring at a Major League 9th ranked 4.59 runs per game, that goes up to 4.72 runs per game when at home. Jeff Samardzija has enjoyed a positive start to his career with the Giants, yet 2016 has had his BB/9 rate increase, with his fastball still costing him runs above average. The model predicts a relatively even matchup between both pitchers and offenses that, with home advantage, should offer a moderate advantage to the Diamondbacks. This represents superb value with the bookies heavily backing a Giants win. Well worth the risk this pick.

Back to the grinder tonight as we work towards to next milestone of 20% profit and overall accuracy to 65%. Thanks for reading.

Overall Accuracy: 61%

Virtual Bank Balance: 120.86