Well there’s no hiding it, a rough night for the model by all accounts. The best result of the evening was a washout in Kansas City thereby voiding the Royals-Red Sox pick. The other 3 picks of the evening produced an overall loss of 9 units that puts the virtual bank balance back down at 104.87.
Let’s move on as quickly as possible. However, first here are those results in full:
May 17th predictions:
Value pick of the day:
Houston @ White Sox = Houston – 61% at odds of 1.90 on BET365
The only projected road victory of the day among the value picks also offers the biggest edge of 11% for the model. Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros in this one, matched up against Carlos Rodon who gets the start for the White Sox. Both performances of these teams thus far has been rather surprising, before the start of the season these teams were projected to be in the opposite position to where they are now.
The Astros struggles have not been helped by a poor, by his standards, opening to the 2016 season for Dallas Keuchel. Yet Keuchel’s xFIP of 3.78 suggests he will improve as the year progresses. Keuchel could do with improving that GB%, currently uncharacteristically below 60%.
Despite Keuchel’s poor stats, the model projects him to edge the matchup with Carlos Rodon on the basis of ability. Rodon’s worryingly high 17.9% HR/FB suggests his current xFIP of 3.76 will not last. The offenses match up extremely similarly, but with Houston scoring better on many of the chosen indicators. The model projects a comfortable win for the Astros, supported by a 5 unit stake based on the bookies odds.
7 more picks gives the model the chance to bounce back well in just one night. Keep the faith, we’ve seen what this model is capable of. Thanks for reading.
Overall Accuracy: 52%
Virtual bank balance: 104.87